Can Scotland at last break their New Zealand curse?

The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.